E-mini S&P grinds back to Point of Origin, but fails to continue 5/21/19
October 10th 2018 initiated a major down move from 2880s to 2360s going into the end of 2018. This area we called the PoO is an area where the market is likely to return. We can short this area, or target it; it is an excellent trading strategy.
However, since we watch these patterns so much we start to understand the nuances involved and can extrapolate based on price behavior what is likely to unfold.
The pullback to PoO is highly over-extended and has recently became weakened. 2920s stands as overhead resistance, if price cannot break through this level it is likely we see lower prices. However, do not underestimate the machine. It can and will continue to grind higher as long as no major rejections are put in place.
As an update to the Forex Futures trading program on C2, we're positive for April and May, there has not been much trading recently as I am currently waiting for new trades to unfold.
Talk soon, Bruce.
Euro trading at key inflection point 4/9/19
Currently the euro micro futures is trading above the point of origin. I would view this as bullish, especially since it has retested multiple inflection points for support. However, it appears that some older, and heavier resistance may be putting some pressure on the current run up.
As you can see on the arrow, buyers came in heavy at the highs, but declined. It is typical for reversals to occur at levels of prior low volume. (See vertical bars to left).
The Euro is very wild and tests many ranges, it does not trade smooth like some stocks, so we are expecting euro to test some of the prior v bottom order-block levels before the possibility of tagging the higher up point of origin zones (not shown).
While in hindsight it is nice to view these inflection points, trading them in real-time is another story. Be sure to time your trades accordingly so you don't have to risk much if you are wrong. The good part is once the trend takes off you have targets and can watch the trade as it smashes through them.
In other news, I exited my long pound trade a little late (it gave me some green but backed off low liquidity). Me being the loyal trend trader I am held it until it came below the main swing low. However, my loss was small so on to the next one.
PS If you like where I'm going with this be sure to join me in the telegram chat where I give my latest trade calls in real-time: https://t.me/ftrchat
Is there a relationship between block-trade size, time and movement of price? 3/28/19
It is well known that Block-Trades can take up available liquidity in the market in one shot, causing price to up/down tick. But what is the association between the two? If we know that block-trades are correlated to a subsequent price movement, then can we use the value of one variable to predict the other?
First let's take a look at what's involved with finding the predictive properties of this formula.
Variable to price movement for strategy:
Resting liquidity in order-book
Initial price correction
Time before next trade
Size of subsequent trades
Available liquidity in order book
These variable I suspect all come into play when considering a Block-Trade and it's effect on subsequent price movement.
As I dig further into the research I will keep you updated, but the key here is that if a relationship exists, knowing the value of one variable, predicts the value of the other, meaning that in theory we should be able to predict how far, and how fast we can expect price to go after Block-Trade is entered. This can help with entering both stop-loss and take-profits dynamically based on the correlations of the variables.
I plan to find the correlation between block-size and price change over various time-periods as well.
Block Size | t+1s | t+2s | t+3s | etc...
Delta (in Ticks):
More coming soon, see you in the live stream.
Have you ever considered that the problem with your trading was your false belief patterns? 3/17/19
When I first heard about it I thought it was utter nonsense; all that mattered in trading was being in the right place at the right time, right?
Well over the years I've found that mindset is just as important as picking the right trade, this will help you smash through your hidden mental blocks which you might not even be aware of.
You have to be in the water to catch the wave 3/15/19
As we continue the surfer analogy in this post I'd like to make that point that in order to catch the big wave that surfers dream about you must first be in the water.
The same goes for trading, as Swing Traders we are constantly in search of the one big trade, the trend that will continue for months on end and grow our account to unprecedented levels.
With a well structured open trade management strategy in place, one that is dynamic and is virtually bullet proof against stop hunts, you can inevitably capture an entire trend from start to finish.
But in order to catch the trend, we need to be on the charts, watching, waiting and looking out onto the horizon to see the swells that may build up into a tsunami of a wave. You also don't want to be that guy that has to bail early because he doesn't know what hes doing, or hasn't had enough practice to handle the stress of such high speed surf. In trading this is equivalent to the stress of quick intra-trade drawdown where the market pulls against you to flush out the weak hands.
To help you with the process of identifying pre-cursors that lead to the development of trends, I recommend Swing Trade Accelerator 1.0 as well as Automated Trading with NinjaTrader to get you started. I show you exactly how to not only search for the mega trend, but also how to ride it until the end, without giving all your gains away on stop-flushes. In the automated trading course you'll learn exactly how to create systems that can be used to identify these trends automatically so you can know when they should be analysed for further consideration.
PS If you're using Ninjatrader7 for your trading and want to skip the programming development processes, you can check out my systematic trading package here, think of it as a shortcut to becoming a systematic trader.
Why surfers would make great traders 3/14/19
As you may already know, studying the lives of successful people can create a shortcut to your own. By modeling what successful people do you invariable get a shortcut you can duplicate for yourself.
I've been studying competitive surfers, not because I plan to take up surfing as a career, but because I think they would make the best traders - here's why
The best surfers in the word don't just show up an hour before the event to prepare, they show up days before and study the ocean; yes that's right they watch how the waves form, they look for cycles, patterns and discover how the waves break. The waves of an ocean are cyclic, they are made of many smaller waves, when the smaller waves become synced they create one larger wave.
By studying these waves in depth, and allowing your subconscious mind time to begin looking for patterns, you build up your intuitive gut feel for when the right wave might form.
In trading it is no different, the market moves when the cycles of incoming capital are on the same wavelength. The chop and noise happen when the incoming capital on multiple time-frames are out of sync.
If you want more about this I go in-depth on how volume development and waves work in the market in my course Swing Trade Accelerator 1.0
To your continued success,